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Open Source Software: The Next Disruptive IT Influence

Document:                       SSR-395
Date of Publication:           October 22, 2007
Number of Pages:             30
Lead Author(s):                 B. Guptill 
Contributing Author(s):       Bill McNee, Mark Koenig, Charlie Burns
Price:                               $1,295.00 USD (Single User License)

Report Overview:  

Open source software is everywhere within user organizations. It is considered acceptable and desirable by user executives for all software categories, in all aspects of the enterprise. Open source software is sought out, considered and evaluated for more than half of all business software acquisitions worldwide.  

User organizations see significant business and competitive value from their use of open source software. Users are drawn to open source due to its:  

Low cost of acquisition;

Independence from vendor release and licensing requirements; and

Ability to manipulate source code -- even by the smallest enterprises.

As a result, open source software has a large and growing, and increasingly unseen, presence within user organizations. The presence of open source is much larger than previously reported – and getting harder to audit and manage. Low cost and ability to manipulate source code means that open source software is (and will be) integrated into  user environments, commercial software solutions, and software delivered as a service (SaaS).

It is this mixed-source, “hidden” presence that will change the nature of business software, the software industry itself, and user IT management, within three to five years. A lack of software standardization, increasingly varied and complex code licensing agreements, community development environments, and vendors’ need to protect intellectually property (and customer bases) mean that user IT and Finance executives will have their hands full with spiraling requirements for managing technology, IT licensing, and vendor relationships. Vendors will have their own pressing issues, from new competitors to their own licensing issues – with vast changes in technology and product/service development methods and costs. 

Saugatuck’s latest Open Source research study - including survey input from over 200 user IT and business executives, supplemented by interviews and briefings with more than 20 open source and traditional software and services vendors - reveals the realities and the effects of open source software now and through 2012. This study provides insights and analysis of fundamental changes, and guidance for user and vendor executives regarding what’s coming, what’s not, and what to do about it.

Press Release / Media, BLOG and Podcast Coverage

04-11-08 Linux Faithful See Ray Of Light Shining On Client OS (Linuxworld)

12-17-07 The Next Disruptive IT Influence (Talend)

11-20-07 Open Source: Enterprise Usage To Double In Three Years (Formtek)

11-19-07 Open Source en Entreprise, La Maturité (Louis Naugčs Blog)

11-18-07 Are SOAs Saving Anyone Money? (Financial Planning)

10-30-07 Open Source Disruption: Will You Trust Your Community? (Enterprise Open Source)

10-24-07 Analyst argues that capitulation to open source is proprietary software's best hope (CNET)

10-22-07 The Open Source Threat (Sandhill)

10-22-07 Saugatuck Announces Open Source User Study (Saugatuck)

09-26-07 Open Source Observers Sound the Licensing Alarm Bell
(Linux Today)

09-13-07 If Linux Server Adoption is Slowing, Then My Name is Steve Ballmer (EnterpriseSearchLinux)

09-05-07 Licensing Issues Could Hinder Open Source Adoption (TechTarget)

08-24-07 Open Source License Proliferation Could Threaten Business IT (ComputerworldUK)

Executive Summary:

10-22-07 Open Source SW - Next Disruptive IT Influence
(Freely available.  Registration Required)

Read this report to learn:

The extent to which open source software will really erode the presence - and profitability - of traditionally-licensed software within user enterprises.

The greatest gaps between user expectations of open source software and traditional software vendors - and why current open source vendors are unlikely to bridge those gaps. 

Why hybridized "open source + proprietary source" development models and software portfolios will be the key to survival and success for software vendors, along with the critical success factors/building blocks for software vendor survival strategies. 

What the top business and technology drivers of open source adoption are for user enterprises and why they vary by company size - but not by geogrpahy or vertical industry. 

Why there is no single, over-riding business or technological inhibitor to the adoption of open source software by user enterprises, and what this means to software vendors.

How the "management premium" of open source software affects both user enterprises and software vendors. 

Research Highlights:

Saugatuck survey data indicate that open source software may account for as much as 10 percent of worldwide user software, in all sizes of enterprises. Thirty-two per cent of user enterprise executives expect that by YE 2010, more than half of their key on-premise software will be open source. 

Open source is changing the way user enterprises perceive, buy and use software. And as a result, open source is changing the way IT vendors and service providers develop, license and support software.

Open source is first and foremost a development methodology, not a product, a technology, a single license scheme, or a business model. Open source's key advantages derive from its community-driven development model. The greatest benefits will go to those who understand this and use it to their advantage. 

Open source will be a significant part of all aspects of hybrid IT environments, based in large part on vendor and services provider use of open source components to reduce development time and costs.

Saugatuck sees three basic stages of open source marketplace presence, evolution and maturity through 2012 (i.e., "Early Adoption", "Core IT Acceptance", "Commercial Ubiquity"). User enterprises are already entering the second stage, while most vendors are stuck in the first, early stage.

In the long term, the greatest open source presence in most enterprises will be as components within vendor and SaaS provider solutions. Saugatuck looks for a majority of SaaS providers to incorporate open source software both in their own platforms and systems, and as part of software and services offerings, by YE 2010. To accomplish this, SaaS providers will partner with (or acquire/be acquired by) leading open source software providers.

There can be no one "open source" model for management or business, for users or vendors. Successful software vendors will utilize business models that blend licensing and revenue streams, including open source and SaaS.
While open source software can reduce the costs of software acquisition and development, and can reduce development timeframes and resource needs, it almost always increases management resource requirements.

Open source is delivering significant business value to user enterprises, and therefore is being managed as would any other valuable IT asset. Open source's presence in user enterprises is far from haphazard or accidental - it is increasingly planned and managed.

SMBs want and need custom solutions - and open source is a means to deliver those at significantly reduced development costs for vendors.

Table Of Contents: 

Introduction: What's so Important About Source Software?
Three Stages in the Marketplace: Saugatuck's Open Source Scenario
Key Assumptions: Users Leads Vendor, and Multiple Models Will Rule
Open Source Today - A User Reality Snapshot 
Mixed-Source, Hybrid Future Changes in Game
Value Beyond Mere Presence 
Factors Driving Open Source Adoption 
Open Source Today - a Vendor Snapshot 
Traditional Vendors: Focus on competitive Aspects of Open Source
Pure-play Vendors: Focus on Community
Licensing Changes the Game 
Summary and Conclusion: The Effects of a Mixed-Source Future
Appendix A: Research Methodology and Demographics

List of Figures and Sidebars:

Sidebar: Defining "Open Source" Software 
Figure 1: Three Stages of Open Source in the Marketplace 
Figure 2: Open Source in the House, 2007 - 2010 
Figure 3: Users Expect Mixed-Source Challenges 
Figure 4: Open Source: Important, Valuable, and Managed 
Figure 5: Drivers of Open Source Adoption 
Figure 6: Top-tier Open Source Adoption Drivers by Company
Sidebar: Table Stakes, Decision Influencers and "Nice-to-Haves"
Sidebar: Open Source does NOT Equal Open Standards 
Figure 7: Key Inhibitors to Open Source Adoption 
Figure 8: Saugatuck 2007 User Open Source Survey Respondents: Company Sizes 
Figure 9: Saugatuck 2007 User Open Source Survey Respondents: Respondent Titles
Figure 10: Saugatuck 2007 User Open Source Survey Respondents: Functional Responsibilities
Figure 11: Saugatuck 2007 User Open Source Survey Respondents: Industry / Sector Distribution

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Faces of Virtualization
Open Source SW
SaaS 2.0: Tipping Point
C-Team: Growth
SOA Reality Check
The IT Utility
SaaS 2.0
Outsourcing Transfd
The IT Utility
Pay-as-you-go IT
UC: A Hard Sell

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